In this article, Bill Gates says that the iPod won't be able to sustain its music dominance. He said, "You can make parallels with computers: Apple was very strong in this field before, with its Macintosh and its graphics user interface -- like the iPod today -- and then lost its position."
Well, Mr. Gates, if you were to make parallels with computers, then you'd have to also include the fact that a certain company tried to copy everything interesting about the Macintosh and apply it to PC's. Does this mean that the same company plans to try and copy everything about the iPod?
Then, this article goes on to suggest that the cell phone will overtake the iPod because of all the great Microsoft media playing software that will be integrated into phones. I've had enough of all this "great Microsoft software." My phone is for making calls. It serves its function at an adaquate level. Do I really need Microsoft crap on it too? Could you imagine having to deal with phone viruses and trojans? The less my cell phone is like a computer, the better.
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I'm not a big Microsoft fan either, but I tend to agree with Gates. Even if Microsoft doesn't copy all the interesting features, someone else will.
Putting music capabilities on phone is going to be appealing to consumers. Putting digital camera software on phones seems to have been pretty popular...
No technology is superior forever. That's the nature of competing based on superior technology.
You sound like a Luddite - "My phone is for making calls." WIth that attitude you would still be stuck using a rotary phone and would have missed out on fax machines, dial up internet, DSL, etc. You would have had the same attitude towards mainframes, workstations, and PCs - "My PC is for doing VisiCalc, I don't need it to do games, images, internet, multimedia, blogging, networking, wireless, etc. My PC serves its function at an adequate level."
I would rather carry a phone that does PDA, multimedia, camera, and phone that does each task well and fits in my pocket rather than having to carry 4-5 devices that only perform a single function.
Overall I think Microsoft has done more good than bad. Why do you equate Microsoft phone software with phone viruses and trojans? The operating systems are different running on different hardware platforms. Symbian, Blackberry, and Palm OS all are also vulnerable, you shouldn't single Microsoft out. Xbox is Microsoft crap and is network capable via Xbox Live - you don't hear about viruses and trojans do you?
Ok. This post was clearly misinterpreted. My fault for crappy writing.
First, the implication from Gates is that the iPod won't change at all, while all the other devices will change (and incorporate iPod functionality) and thus will phase out the iPod. The problem with this assertion is that the iPod will change (see photo iPod).
Second, both responses to this post suggest that adding functionality is appealing. This is true only if the added functionality doesn't detract from the device's primary functionality. For example, with the camera phone, the camera doesn't drain battery life out of the cell phone to a major degree, and thus becomes useful. If you pair an iPod with a cell phone as it currently stands, well, the iPod would drain much of the phone battery life and greatly reduce phone functionality.
Would people prefer a single device that plays music, video, takes photos, makes calls, acts as a PDA, and does any number of other functions? Sure. But only if it does each of those functions as well as each individual device. Do camera phones eliminate people's desires to have digital cameras? No, because it's not a great camera, it's more like a little toy camera. Do the phones or PDA's that play MP3's eliminate iPods? No, they don't play music as well as iPod. In fact, I think Apple's on the way to incorporating more of those features into iPod before a phone will incorporate a good music player (see photo iPod and the very rudimentary calendar).
Yes, my phone is for making calls -- I'm not saying I would use a rotary if a touchtone is better. My phone is crummy to begin with, and I'd rather them improve the actual "phone" function before trying to add other gimmicks.
Microsoft is a more popular target for virus writers because of their PC dominance. That doesn't change with regards to their trying to put software on cell phones.
I'm sorry for writing a post that wasn't clear.
Ok, you're a little clearer I guess, but I still disagree with your original rant.
First let me make the point that battery technology and battery power management improve as well, so the idea that a phone and audio player can be combined with an acceptable battery life isn't particularly farfetched. Consider that full color LCD displays (such as those used for camera phones) probably had unacceptable power drains 5 years ago. The way I see it, there's no fundamental roadblock in combining the two devices--only a few enginering problems that will probably be solved given time. That is to say, an mp3 feature that doesn't detract from the phone function isn't that unreasonable.
Second, it's not unreasonable to think that a good mp3 function can be added to a phone. Good flash memory mp3 players are already tiny to begin with (unlike good digital cameras). If this marriage is successful, then this product is smaller than an iPod+phone (or even an iPod with phone capability).
Yes, Apple will come out with new stuff, but inevitably all the added competition will make its current position in the marketplace pretty difficult to maintain.
Doesn't your last statement pretty much mean anyone in a position at the top of their industry will have trouble maintaining market dominance?
If that's the case, then how novel is Gates' point in the first place? Any time, especially in technology when a company has dominance, the competitors work to take them down. That's been true in OS's, PDA's, music software, and web browsers.
One thing that Apple has worked into the music business that works well is the way that the software, music store and player are all controled by Apple. I think Gates has underestimated this. The music people have invested in on iTunes can't be played elsewhere easily.
Maybe my peer group is a bad example, but I can't think of anybody I know that has a non-iPod MP3 player (in fact, the one person I knew that didn't caved in and bought an iPod). I've never met anyone who uses any of the other music stores. That represents a good number of educated 20-somethings in NYC, and this groups habits will be hard to change, I think.
One other aside is, why is the cell phone the likliest challenger to the iPod crown? The PSP sure looks like a handy gadget.
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