Well, it looks like we're down to 8 teams in the NFL. I missed last week's games, but from the scores, it doesn't look like I missed that much. Here's a brief analysis from someone who hardly follows the NFL these days except to find out if the Jets will get Eric Mangini, Patriots Defensive Coordinator, as their head coach.
Washington at Seattle
The Seahawks are generally tough at home, but the Redskins have been really tough down the stretch, which reminds me of teams like the 2001 Patriots or 2000 Ravens. So which will be a bigger factor here, injuries to the Redskins or Seattle's recent playoff futility? Seattle the last two years has reminded me of the recent iterations of Colts or Vikings that made the playoffs strongly and then lost tragically. I'm not sure what will be the stronger factor, but I think the Redskins keep this one close. Washington takes the 9.5 point spread and possibly even the game.
New England at Denver
I don't like to bet against Tom Brady who is undefeated in the playoffs. The fact that the Broncos beat the Patriots earlier this year doesn't mean much to me. A strange Monday Night game in 2003 where the Broncos with Danny Kannell as QB nearly beat NE (and Belichek took a safety in the end zone) gives me hope that Shanahan could be the coach to beat the Patriots, but I'm not banking on it. Patriots take this one. By the way, a Patriots victory would further prolong the Jets coaching situation, so my pessimistic inner-Jets fan has to go with New England here. I'll take the Pats. I think if you can only watch one game this weekend, this might be it.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis
If the Steelers win this, I'd be shocked. The Colts were playing great, got a little derailed, but should be back on track, and at the dome. I'm not so sure about that spread, though. While the Colts destroyed the Steelers in the first match-up, this one should be a little closer, but even closer means the Colts cover.
Carolina at Chicago
This game made me wonder, "what's the over/under?" since both teams aren't known for their offense. I think the Bears can take this one but it's not really based on any fact or observations, other than that the Panthers are pretty inconsistant. I think there's some home advantage here as well. I suspect the game will come down to the turnovers and Steve Smith. If Chicago keeps the ball safe and contains Smith, they should win. This will be a close game where field position will make the difference. I'll take Chicago.
So the KFB predicts that next week we will see:
Washington at Chicago
New England at Indianapolis
Tags: NFL Playoffs, Playoffs
2024 NFL draft: Pros and cons for every first-round pick
59 minutes ago
8 comments:
The Wall Street Journal observes that the four coaches in today's games have all won the Super Bowl as Head Coaches, which is a pretty impressive coincidence (Gibbs, Belichek, Holmgren, Shanahan). Notice that in fact, Lovie Smith is the only coach of the remaining teams who has never coached in a Conference Championship game.
ESPN.com suggests that Shannahan and Holmgren could meet again in the Super Bowl. Not likely, if you ask me.
A few comments about yesterday's games:
I was totally wrong about both. If I had realized that Seattle had an 11 game winning streak before losing at Green Bay with their backups, I might have thought differently about that game and the Redskins being hot. Nonetheless, they did it, even with Shaun Alexander out most of the game with a concussion. One strange comment I heard on the radio is commentator John Riggins part way through the game saying how the Seahawks seemed to be pressing and playing tight, cited Shaun Alexander's concussion as one such example. You can't really get a concussion from "playing tight" can you?
I was so happy to be wrong about the New England / Denver game. There were three things in this game that were unlike any other New England game I've seen in the recent past:
1) Close officiating calls didn't go their way. In fact, I'd say there were a few bad calls against them (including Asante Samuel's pass interference). They were also uncharacteristically sloppy with a lot of penalties such as false starts and delay of game at the beginning. The Champ Bailey fumble at the 1 yd line call was another such close call that could have really gone either way, with little video evidence to overturn. Imagine if it had been called for a touchback? What a great tackle by Ben Watson, by the way, who ran over 100 yards and totally laid Bailey out.
2) Adam Vinitieri missed a 43 yard field goal. As the Patriots tried to come back, Vinitieri missed a FG on a stalled drive. That never happens!
3) Turnovers and poor play from Tom Brady. I couldn't believe all the fumbles by the Patriots - that's the sort of thing they usually make other teams do. The Troy Brown fumble was baffling, and I loved how the punter Saurbrun hit Ellis Hobbs to force a fumble on the kickoff return in the 2nd quarter.
The Patriots were human after all. It was nice to see. By the way, excluding the turnovers, New England was really dominant during the game. They had run a lot, and led with time of posession but the uncharacteristic fumbles and turnovers ended up costing them a lot of points. I think Denver is going to have to go to Indy next week and get smoked. It's funny, I thought New England was the team Indy would have trouble with, Denver the team New England would have trouble with and Indy the team Denver would have trouble with. We'll see if that's true.
My friend pointed this one out - how many ads for "Cold Case" do we have to endure during these CBS football games? Is it even that good a show? I'm not interested in the slightest.
So yet another incorrect pick by yours truly but who would have given the Steelers a chance? What an amazing game, where Pittsburgh was able to blitz like crazy and take the Colts offense totally out of rhythm. That's got to be just good defense, where the Colts just could not pick up the blitzes. The end of the game had a remarkable set of events, including a reversal of an interception on replay (which should have never been reversed), Peyton Manning getting sacked at the 2 yd line on fourth down with less than two minutes, Jerome Bettis fumbling the ball and Indianapolis recovering at their own 40, and then Mike Vanderjagt missing a FG to tie the game at the end. Doesn't Mike Vanderjagt seem like a kicker who gets a ton of credit for having done very little in his career? Sure he's accurate, but I can't shake the memory of him missing a 49 yard kick in Miami in the 2000 NFL playoffs. Feel free to share other Vanderjagt misses in this space as well.
I don't think the Steelers have a prayer in Denver, but who's listening to me?
I missed ALL the games this weekend. Pretty damn impressive.
Share with you other Vanderjagt misses? Gladly. I don't really like Vanderjagt, mainly because he runs his mouth too much for a kicker. Remember when he threw Manning and Dungy under the bus a few years ago? Yikes...
I'll start small. 2003 Pro Bowl, the NFC leads the AFC 55-52. Vanderjagt lines up for a 51-yard field goal to send the game into OT and misses. Now granted, 51 yards is pretty long, and aside from the extra money for winning the game, the Pro Bowl is fairly meaningless. Be that as it may, you'd like to see him make that kick.
The most recent miss that people will remember is the 48-yarder in Foxboro in the first game of 2004. If he makes it, he ties the game. But instead, he misses wide right and the Colts lose, which ultimately leads to the Colts having to play the rested Patriots in Foxboro in January.
But the most "unclutch" Vanderjagt moment that no one ever remembers is that incredible game against Tampa Bay a few years ago, where the Colts scored 21 points in the final 4 minutes to send the game into OT. In OT, Vanderjagt has to kick a 40-yard field goal to win the game...and misses wide right. But alas, this kick isn't in the stats, because thanks to a really weird "leaping" penalty against Simeon Rice (which didn't affect the missed kick), Indy gets to replay the down...10 yards closer! From 29 yards away, Vanderjagt makes it...barely. The ball bounces off of the right post and squeaks in. Yeah, he gets credit for making it, but 29 yard kicks shouldn't be bouncing off the goalposts.
The most annoying part of all these misses and near misses was that they occurred during the time where Vanderjagt set the record for most consecutive FGs without a miss (the Foxboro miss ended that streak). The Pro Bowl miss isn't an official kick and the one in Tampa was nullified by penalty, yet I believe they both occurred during his historic streak. I wish I could figure out how many of those successful kicks were do-or-die late game kicks, but I can't shake the conclusion that the supposed most accurate kicker in NFL history is somewhat of a choker.
Btw, I think the Steelers will win in Denver. Despite winning the New England game, Denver struggled to move the ball on offense, and the Pats gained nearly 500 yards on their defense. If the Pats don't turn the ball over so many times, Denver probably loses that game.
Don't get me wrong, Denver forced some of those turnovers, and they deserved to win the game, but if you ask me, the Steelers looked better last weekend. I think both defenses will stop the run game, and it comes down to who plays better: Roethlisberger or Plummer. Denver's pass rush isn't as good as Pitt's, so I'll take Roethlsibiewrg.
Thanks for those comments.
I think that Denver's home field is a big advantage, but I guess Pittsburgh overcame the noise at the dome, so perhaps it won't be as much as a benefit. Bill Cowher's record in conference championship games isn't as good as Shanahan's, if that's worth anything. I have to think the altitude and the third straight game on the road has to take a little toll on the Steelers. I'm going to lean towards Denver but perhaps the Steelers will do better with less pressure on them (they tend to not do as well with so much pressure).
With Vanderjagt, there's not much to say other than that kickers are so unpredictable, it's so hard to know what "most accurate" really means.
Post a Comment