Two Underdogs

Today, two major underdogs vie for Super Bowl berths. I'll try to pick the games. Since the "seeding" format, each Super Bowl has had either a #1 or #2 seed in it. So it seems unlikely that both underdogs would win this week. Also, both home teams are undefeated at home this year, so picking against one of them would be breaking a streak.

Pittsburgh at Denver - If the Broncos can blitz the way they blitzed New England, I think it will be harder for the Steelers than people think. Everyone is high on them the way they played in Indianapolis, and rightly so. Maybe this year the Steelers won't be as tight since they aren't heavy favorites and Cowher can make it back to the Super Bowl (he is 1-4 in Conference Championship games, including several disappointing losses). However, while Pittsburgh's defense should get a lot of pressure on Denver (just as New England did), I think people forget the trouble QB Ben Roethlisberger had with presure last year in the playoffs against the Jets and New England. Denver's front 7 should be able to harass Roethlisberger more than Indianapolis was able to, and I think that will make a big difference. I like Denver here.

Carolina at Seattle - I don't know what to make of the injuries to the Panthers. I have to think they travel well (and Jake Delhomme has only lost one game in the playoffs ever, the Super Bowl versus New England). So I have trouble picking against them, but I think the Seahawks being at home may be the biggest factor. This game is "strength versus strength" with the Panther defense versus the Seahawks offense. I'll go with Seattle, if for any other reason than to cover my ass and get at least 50% of my picks correct. I'd be shocked if both home teams lose.

Another "rule" to watch for - on Conference Championship weekend, one game is usually a blowout and the other is usually close.

Tags: Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, football, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks